Electric Drivetrains Are Coming to Trucking

Traditional truck manufacturers risk falling behind if they are slow to move into electric drivetrains. That assessment came from analyst Alexander Potter of Piper Jaffray in a report for industry investors, who warned that many established suppliers are exposed to disruption.

Buses Lead, Trucks Follow

Potter pointed to the rapid adoption of electric buses as the pathway to electric trucking, driven by advances in drivetrain and battery technology.

"Although California remains an early adopter of electric vehicles, the merits of electric drivetrains are now being acknowledged in regions far away from coastal enclaves," Potter said. "Red states and blue states alike are embracing electric buses, and we see no reason why this trend should abate. Indeed, we expect it to accelerate."

Bus makers scaled up quickly - one manufacturer opened a factory capable of building 400 electric buses a year, while another built a U.S. plant producing electric buses and trucks and shipping units internationally.

The Cost Curve

Potter acknowledged the higher upfront cost of electric vehicles but argued it is a passing issue offset by operating savings.

"It's important to note that electric bus volume is rising despite a sizable premium versus internal combustion buses," he said. Even with a six-figure price premium over a diesel equivalent, negligible maintenance costs and substantial energy savings made the return on investment attractive.

The same logic, he argued, will reach trucking: "As volume rises and prices fall toward parity, other segments should steadily embrace EV drivetrains, including school buses, refuse trucks, and urban delivery fleets, more or less in that order."

The Hurdles Are Real

There are still significant obstacles. There is no national charging network for long-haul trucks the way there is fueling for diesel. Charging time is another issue - drivers will not want to wait hours for a battery when they can refuel diesel in minutes. For that reason, analysts expected electric trucks to be deployed first on routes that return to a central depot for charging.

The battery pack is where the core value - and the core cost - lives. "The pieces of metal in the drivetrain - motors, inverters, transmissions, axles - are simple, cheap, and in some cases not needed at all," Potter said. The expensive component is the battery, and heavy vehicles like trucks and buses require packs several times larger than those in a typical passenger EV.

Who Is Moving

Major manufacturers were already entering the space. Tesla planned to reveal a heavy-duty truck design, Daimler began producing an all-electric medium-duty truck under the Fuso brand for sale in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, and both Daimler and Volkswagen's MAN division signaled plans for heavy-duty electric trucks. Toyota and others have pursued hydrogen fuel cells, which generate electricity to power electric drivetrains.

The direction is clear. For fleets and owner-operators, the practical questions are duty cycle and charging access - which is exactly why depot-based and urban routes are leading the transition.