The freight market is on fire. Spot rates have surged 31% year-over-year, capacity is tight, and owner-operators with available trucks are pulling strong revenue. But if you've got flexibility on equipment—or you're considering adding intermodal to your mix—there's a real question worth asking: is pure truckload where the money is, or are containers starting to catch up?
The short answer: right now, truckload is leading. But the gap is narrowing, and understanding why matters for your next load decision.
The Rate Gap: Why Trucking Pulled Ahead in 2026
FreightWaves reported in February 2026 that intermodal spot rates hadn't kept pace with trucking's surge. At that time, truckload spot rates were climbing faster than container economics could follow. The reason is structural: trucking capacity tightened faster than rail/intermodal capacity, and shippers with urgent freight paid a premium to move it by truck.
As of late June, the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index showed spot rates up 31%—but that's primarily driven by dry van and reefer. Intermodal, while improving, hasn't seen the same velocity. On a per-mile basis, a long-haul truckload (say, 500+ miles) is still paying 15–25% more than equivalent intermodal lanes, depending on origin and destination.
Why Intermodal Lags (and When It Doesn't)
Intermodal moves slower through the system. Dwell time at ports, rail yards, and distribution centers adds days to transit. Shippers desperate for speed—and willing to pay—book trucks. Shippers with flexible timelines and cost sensitivity book containers.
But there are exceptions. Import/export lanes (LA to Chicago, Houston to Dallas) still move steady intermodal volume. Dedicated rail contracts often lock in rates that beat spot truckload on high-volume lanes. And if you're running a mixed operation (some loads via broker, some via rail partner), intermodal can smooth out gaps between truck loads.
The Real Question: Utilization vs. Rate
Here's what matters most: a lower intermodal rate with 95% utilization and zero deadhead can outperform a higher truckload rate with two empty legs per week.
Example: A truckload at $2.50/mile (hot market rate) over 500 miles = $1,250 gross. But if you deadhead 200 miles back to a freight hub, your true per-mile is closer to $1.47. An intermodal lane at $1.80/mile, fully loaded both ways, with no deadhead, nets $1.80 true per-mile—and it's predictable.
On Doft and other loadboards, you can see both truckload and intermodal lanes. The key is comparing all-in economics, not headline rate alone.
When to Chase Truck Loads
- Spot market is hot (it is now). Rates are high, capacity is tight, and shippers are paying premium.
- You have a strong lane with consistent backhaul (e.g., produce to the Northeast with a return load booked).
- You're positioned near a freight hub (port, cross-dock, major shipper) where loads are abundant and deadhead is short.
- Your truck is newer/specialized (reefer, flatbed, tanker). Intermodal doesn't reward specialty equipment the same way.
When to Explore Intermodal
- You want predictability over peak rates. Rail contracts are stable; spot rates swing.
- You're in a high-utilization lane (e.g., regular runs between major metros with consistent backhauls).
- Fuel costs are climbing and you want to lock in a rate that doesn't spike with diesel.
- You're building a small fleet and want to smooth cash flow with a mix of contract and spot work.
The 2026 Outlook
Industry analysts (Traffix, DAT, FreightWaves) expect double-digit rate increases to hold through 2026. That favors truckload in the near term. But capacity normalization is possible in Q4—if it happens, intermodal may close the gap faster than truck rates fall.
Owner-operators who've locked in good intermodal contracts are sleeping well. Those chasing spot rates are making strong money now, but they're also exposed to the swings.
The Practical Move
If you're on a loadboard like Doft, spend time comparing both. Filter for intermodal lanes in your region, note the rates, and calculate true per-mile including deadhead and dwell time. Then compare to equivalent truckload lanes. You might find pockets where intermodal is actually ahead—or you might confirm that right now, trucks are the play.
The market is hot. The opportunity is real. But the best decision isn't always the highest headline rate—it's the one that fits your equipment, your lanes, and your risk tolerance.
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